Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea (Vi) are expected to deliver strong average revenue per user (ARPU) as well as sequential mobile revenue growth in India in the fiscal fourth quarter, helped by the full beneficial effect of strong tariff increases taken into account. last November -December, according to analysts.

Jefferies estimates that Airtel and Jio report 10% sequential increases in mobile revenue in India in the March quarter, while BNP Paribas estimates that Vi will grow by around 5.5% in the quarter.

Airtel, Vi and Jio had increased prepaid rates by 20-25% towards the end of November-beginning of December 2021.

“We expect robust quarterly cellular revenue growth for Indian telcos in Q4, aided by rising ARPU, with all the benefits of the tariff increases taken November 21,” BofA Securities said in a note seen by AND.

Analysts also expect telecom operator margins in the March quarter to see strong improvements due to higher ARPUs, but expect subscriber additions to remain muted, following increases in prices and the continued cleansing of low-paid users by Jio.

BNP expects Airtel to register the highest jump in ARPU among the three private carriers, at 14% on the quarter to Rs 185, while Jefferies estimates Jio to increase by 12.1% sequentially to Rs 170 Vi, in turn, is expected to report a 7.4% sequential increase in this key performance metric to Rs 123 during the March quarter, BNP says in a note seen by ET.

Analysts expect only Airtel to see subscriber additions in the fiscal fourth quarter and see both Jio and Vi suffer customer losses after the sharp rise in mobile tariffs.

Jefferies estimates that Airtel will add around one million customers, increasing its user base to 324 million in the January-March period. In contrast, he estimates that Jio’s user base will drop 2% sequentially to 412 million due to the market leader’s focus on high-quality subscribers, which is reflected in the massive removal inactive users.

BNP, however, estimates that Vi will lose an additional three million customers in the fourth quarter – reducing its user base to 244 million – largely due to the impact of SIM card consolidation, after the increase in tariffs, underscoring the continued inability of the cash-strapped telecom operator. to fight Airtel and Jio, especially on the 4G front.

UBS brokerage estimates that Airtel’s net profit for the March quarter will rise sharply by around 78% QoQ to Rs 1,477.3 crore. Analysts say Airtel’s expected profit rise will be helped by robust mobile revenue growth in India as well as a strong growth trajectory in its domestic non-mobile business, particularly domestic broadband and mobile verticals. business. Consolidated revenue is expected to grow approximately 9% sequentially.

Jefferies estimates that Jio, led by Mukesh Ambani, announced a sequential jump of around 40% in net profit in the March quarter to around 5,000 crore rupees – its 18th consecutive quarterly profit – due to higher l ‘Ebitda and lower interest charges.

BNP estimates that Vi’s March quarter loss will narrow sequentially but remain high at Rs 6,805.2 crore as the benefits of revenue growth fueled by higher tariffs would be partially offset by lower trading, subsequent price increases and continued loss of customers.

However, he estimates that overall telecommunications sector revenue growth should more than double to 9% sequentially in the fourth quarter of FY22, driven by the full impact of strong telecommunications price increases from last November through December.

The estimated increase in revenues from the telecommunications sector, BNP said, despite “multiple factors affecting growth, including lower days qq, moderation in user additions due to tariffs and handset prices higher, the consolidation of SIM cards and the impact of high inflation leading to weak consumer purchasing power and reduced spending in mass consumption categories”.

Telecommunications sector revenue increased 4.5% and 4.2% sequentially in the second and third quarters of FY22.